Conferences

Voter turnout is a core theme for political science. Its dynamics has been puzzling political scientists for a long time, and thus it has been investigated since the very first studies on voting. However, most of these studies have referred to macro-level stability (or instability) of voter turnout; our knowledge about micro-level voter turnout stability is poor and needs further in-depth elaboration. Thus the central aim of this paper is to analyze micro-level voter turnout stability in detail.

Our main research question is what the covariates and determinants of voter turnout stability (on micro-level) are. Most precisely, we want to find out why some citizens are very stable as far as electoral participation is concerned, while others repeatedly ‘transit’ from voting to abstention or vice versa. We also want to answer the question why in some countries voter turnout stability is a widespread practice, while elsewhere it is a nearly non-existing phenomenon. Hence we offer two types of hypotheses. Firstly, we propose hypotheses linking voter turnout stability with micro-level variables. Secondly, we propose hypotheses linking voter turnout stability with macro-level, institutional characteristics.

Our second principal aim in this paper is to evaluate the quality of the measurements in the CSES, especially cross-nationally and cross-culturally. In analysis of voter turnout stability we must first of all rely on questions about electoral participation of respondents. Meanwhile, over-reporting of voter turnout is a widespread and well-known phenomenon (CSES data is not an exception in this regard), which of course must have an impact on analysis of voter turnout stability. Moreover, there are significant cross-national differences as far as this phenomenon is concerned. Thus our aim is to study cross-national and cross-cultural differences in over-reporting in CSES data thoroughly.

As our theory pertains both to micro-level variables as well as macro-level characteristics, we employ a multi-level research design. We study effects of both micro-level variables and macro-level variables. We also investigate interactions between them and their impact on voter turnout stability. Our hypotheses are tested using CSES data (module 2). Our results indicate that voter turnout stability varies importantly across countries, also in reference to its determinants and covariates. Our central finding is that both micro-level variables and macro-level characteristics have at best mixed effects. Thus we find no evidence for a single pattern of voter turnout stability in modern democracies.